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==Risk assessment==
==Risk assessment==
This process aims to investigate the likelihood and consequences of entry of the pathogen into the country and the likelihood and consequences of pathogen spread within the country.
This process aims to investigate the likelihood and consequences of entry of the pathogen into the country and the likelihood and consequences of pathogen spread within the country. It is divided into three steps following a logical progression (release, exposure, consequence), along with a step which brings these three together to produce a final estimate (estimation).
===Release assessment===
===Release assessment===
This stage requires the investigation of how animals to be imported may become contaminated or infected with the pathogen of interest (both within the exporting country and en route to the importing country), as well as whether they will remain infected by the time they arrive in the importing country (including pre-movement testing of live animals, quarantine practices, or slaughter and processing pathways for animal products). This is then used to estimate the likelihood of infected animals being imported. A useful way of visualising this process is through the creation of a scenario tree detailing the steps by which the pathogen can enter the country.
===Exposure assessment===
===Exposure assessment===
This stage requires the investigation of the likelihood of exposure of animals in the importing country to the pathogen of interest from infected imported animals. Note that this does not necessarily include infection (which is treated as a consequence of exposure). This will depend largely on the mechanisms by which the pathogen can be transmitted, as well as relevant demographic and management practices in the importing country.
===Consequence assessment===
===Consequence assessment===
This stage involves the description of the consequences of exposure and the probabilities of these consequences occurring. These consequences can be classified into those directly associated with the pathogen (such as the effects of disease and death amongst domestic animals, humans and/or wild animals) and those which are indirectly associated with the pathogen (such as trade restrictions, loss of consumer confidence, control/monitoring costs and effects on tourism. The scale of these consequences (for example, at the individual farm, local or national scale) should also be considered. Of course, the consequences could range from minimal to considerable, and therefore a number of scenarios should be considered (ranging from individual cases without establishment of pathogen in the population, up to the pathogen becoming endemic within the population).
===Risk estimation===
===Risk estimation===
This is the final stage of the risk assessment process, and involves the combination of the results of the previous three stages in order to summarise the risk of pathogen entry. It is important that this stage remains as objective and transparent as possible, in order to ensure that risk managers have all the required information available to them in order to make decisions (i.e. it is not the risk assessors' responsibility to advise upon the best action to be taken).
[[Category:Veterinary Epidemiology - Further Concepts|A]]
[[Category:Veterinary Epidemiology - Further Concepts|A]]