Due to the reliance of disease transmission on appropriate snail habitats and therefore weather, it has been possible to develop models to predict the occurence of fasciolosis to help its control within flocks and herds. These models evaluate the soil moisture content from May to October by considering rainfall patterns and evapo-transpiration, weighted for season. Although June is a particularly influential month in these models, a drought in late summer can reverse predictions of potentially high snail density, and so forecasts should not be issued prematurely. A complicating factor in the prediction of fasciolosis is the fact that snail density is insufficient for disease in the absence of infection (i.e. deposited fluke eggs), and so forecasts generated must be interpreted in the context of local biology. | Due to the reliance of disease transmission on appropriate snail habitats and therefore weather, it has been possible to develop models to predict the occurence of fasciolosis to help its control within flocks and herds. These models evaluate the soil moisture content from May to October by considering rainfall patterns and evapo-transpiration, weighted for season. Although June is a particularly influential month in these models, a drought in late summer can reverse predictions of potentially high snail density, and so forecasts should not be issued prematurely. A complicating factor in the prediction of fasciolosis is the fact that snail density is insufficient for disease in the absence of infection (i.e. deposited fluke eggs), and so forecasts generated must be interpreted in the context of local biology. |