Risk Analysis

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Introduction

Risk analysis is a formal & structured way of looking at risks and hazards. In veterinary public health it is mainly used by bodies that play a role in imposing regulations designed to protect animals or human health(e.g. governments or government bodies). If an issue is looked at using risk analysis, it is understood that it will be assessed in a fairly standardised way.

Risk analysis has been used for looking at nuclear reactors, chemical emissions, space exploration & in many other areas. However, its use in veterinary public health has only occurred in the last 10 years or so. Today it is a widely used and accepted way of looking at food safety issues & zoonoses.

Components & Terminology

Due to being used in a variaty of disciplines the exact chain of events that make up risk analysis can take more than one format.

In the most widely used format in Veterinary Public Health Risk Analysis consists of:

1. Hazard Identification.
2. Risk Assessment.
3. Risk Management.
4. Risk Communication.

1. Hazard Identification.
   A Hazard can be defined as something that is potentially harmful- to humans, animals, plants or the environment. This could be the presence of a pathogenic organism in an item of food, faulty brakes in a car or an uncovered manhole. Hazard identification is thus the process of identyfying all possible hazards in a given situation. In reality it may not be possible to identify every hazard in existance for a given situation. However, in order to estimate the risk associated with a given hazard the hazard has to be identified in the first place.
   
   
2. Risk Assesment. - covered in greater depth on Risk Assessment page.
   This refers to the evaluation of the risk(s) associated with a hazard. This often requires risk assessors skilled in a number of diiferent fields. Risk can be defined in this setting as the probability of an undesirable outcome occurring as a consequence of the hazard. This implies that there is more than one possible outcome that could occur and at least one of them is undesiable. In risk analysis the probable consequences of the undesirable outcome occurring are also estimated. For example, if the presence of a pathogenic organism in an item of food is the hazard, then the risk assessment would try to estimate the probability of that organism in the food item causing disease and if it did cause disease , how severe would the disease be & how many people would be affected. Some undesirable outcomes may only affect a few people but have severe consequences or affect many people but have an insignificant effect. Also different people may view a paricular outcome as more undesirable than other people. This is of importance in risk managemant & communication. See Risk Assessment for more detail.
3. Risk Management.
   Here the risk manager looks at the risk assessors results & using their own judgement balances potential benefits against assessed risks to reach a desision on the acceptable level of risk. It is based on this judgement that policy is made. Cost-benefit analysis or risk-benefit analysis may be used.
   
   Risk management also includes a structured process consisting of the following:
   1. Becoming aware that a risk issue exists (i.e. a situation with one or more unwanted potential outcomes).
   2. "Scoping the problem"-This includes deciding what further action is required, this depends on if the risk manager sees the risk issue as being of importance. He may decide that a formal risk assessment is not required. He may decide to use the Precautionary Principle & put in place measures to deal with the percieved risk even before the formal risk assessment is undertaken.
   3. Obtaining relevant information - e.g. in the form of Hazard Identification or a Risk Assessment, potential costs & benfits (which could take the form of a Cost-Benefit or Risk-Benefit analsysis).
   4. Identifying the management options.
   5. Deciding which measures should be put in place to deal with the risk (called Risk-Reduction Measures).
   6. Making sure that these decisions are carried out & monitoring the consequences of actions taken.
   7. Evaluating the outcomes of these decisions & actions taken.
   8. Re-evaluating the problem in light of these outcomes.
      
      During this process new information may arise, this may lead to the need to try to identify new hazards, do more risk assessments leading to a requirement for more management with different risk management options available. This cylce of activity highlights the fact that risk management is an iterative process. The risk assessment is usually carried out by different people to the those that carry out the risk management.
      
      The risk manager will consider what level of risk is acceptable. But the an "Acceptable Risk" for one preson maynot be acceptable to another. Often those that reeps the benefits from a situation (i.e. importing meat from a country) are not those that would suffer due to any undesirable outcomes (e.g. the infection of cattle in the importing country with Foot & Mouth Disease brought in with the imported meat). Therefore agreement on the acceptable level of risk is required between all involved parties. This requires the level of risk to be assessed in a manner that is accepted by all parties & also communication between the parties & the risk managers & risk assessors.
4. Risk Communication.
   As mentioned, this requires open communication between all parties affected by both the risk & decisions made (collectively these parties are called the stakeholders), risk managers & risk asssessors; this should begin as early as possible. Risk Communication achieves the following:
   1. It allows the exchange of factual information between stakeholders.
   2. It helps the risk manager to assess the different stakeholders perceived level of risk.
   3. It helps the risk manager to assess the different stakeholders acceptable level of risk.
   4. It allows understanding of the acceptablility & feasibility of different risk management options.
   5. It allows understanding of the effects of different management options.
   6. It encourages stakeholders to trust the risk manager, the process of the risk analysis & each other.

Risk communication may include public meetings, discussion documents, telephone help desks web-based forums, etc...

The terminology in this section is that used by the OIE. See International Animal Helath.